Japan revises energy policy to expand nuclear power. The image is Tokyo Electric Power's nuclear power plant. (Photo: Tepco)
To expand the share of low-carbon energy, Japan continues to strengthen its nuclear energy policies.
In addition to reaffirming the goal of achieving 20% nuclear power by 2030 and extending it through 2040, Japan will also allow the construction of new nuclear reactors and remove the phrase "reduce dependence on nuclear power as much as possible," further emphasizing its commitment to embracing nuclear power.
Japan's power demand expected to double due to AI boom
On Dec. 17, Japan's government released a draft of the new Basic Energy Plan, providing policy directions for future development.
The plan forecasts that Japan's electricity demand will increase by 1.1 to 1.2 trillion kWh by 2040, approximately 1.2 times the current demand, driven by the expansion of semiconductor factories and data centers fueled by artificial intelligence.
The draft highlights that, in balancing economic growth with emissions reduction, the government will allow electricity companies to make up for the number of nuclear plants that have been decommissioned, and also authorize the construction of new nuclear reactors.
Additionally, the government plans to create a suitable financial environment for their development, including offering government loans and increasing electricity prices to reduce costs and investment risks.
The advisory panel suggests that Japan should consider replacing decommissioned nuclear plants with advanced nuclear reactors. They argue that Japan's geographical environment presents limitations for expanding renewable energy, indicating that energy supply instability remains a concern.
After the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, the Japanese government restricted nuclear power development, only to re-embrace nuclear energy in 2022. At that time, Japan decided to accelerate the restart of nuclear reactors and extend their operational lifespan from 40 to 60 years. The government also set a target of increasing the share of nuclear power to 20%-22% by 2030, and the draft extends this goal to 2040.
Renewable energy share to increase with solar, hydropower to lead
In addition to ensuring stable nuclear power supply, the draft also proposes significantly increasing the share of renewable energy, forecasting that by 2040, renewables will account for 40%-50% of Japan's energy mix. It urges both nuclear and renewables to be utilized “to the fullest extent”.
According to official statistics, renewable energy currently accounts for 23% of Japan's total power generation, while nuclear power contributes 8.5%.
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Japan's latest Basic Energy Plan significantly increases the share of renewable energy and urges both nuclear and renewables to be utilized “to the fullest extent.” (Photo: iStock)
The draft forecasts that by 2040, the share of fossil fuel-based power generation will be reduced by half, dropping to 30%-40%. In terms of increasing renewable energy share, solar power is expected to account for 22%-29%, followed by hydropower at 8%-10%, wind power at 4%-8%, biomass at 5%-6%, and geothermal at 1%-2%.
The current energy plan includes a target of increasing the share of hydrogen and ammonia-based power generation to 1%, but this goal does not appear in the draft. Some analysts believe that the new energy plan is more realistic than the current one, reflecting the government's intention to attract investments in storage batteries and other renewable energy technologies while continuing to use liquefied natural gas as a transitional fuel in the energy shift.
Source: Asahi Shimbun, Kyodo News, Reuters, Bloomberg
