Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, is poised to become Germany's new Chancellor. (Photo: Friedrich Merz's X account)
Germany will hold its federal election on Feb. 23, and the results may not be favorable for climate policy development.
The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), currently leading in the polls, has already signaled plans to adjust climate funds, cancel related subsidies, and lift the ban on fossil fuel boilers. These changes could ultimately slow down the carbon reduction process and diminish Germany’s role in the EU's energy transition.
Election focus on national security, immigration
Due to internal conflicts within the coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the end of last year, which led to a failed confidence vote in parliament, the government will dissolve parliament and hold elections earlier than expected. Polls indicate strong support for the conservative opposition alliance, which focuses on national security and immigration, with approval ratings around 30%, nearly double that of other parties.
The rising electricity prices have become the focal point of energy policy in this election. The CDU/CSU has promised to redirect some climate subsidies to help households and businesses cover electricity costs. They also plan to lower taxes and reduce grid fees to reduce electricity prices to 0.05 euros per kWh (about 0.052 USD).
According to the Reiner Lemoine Institute, a German energy research institution, the CDU/CSU has proposed sound policies on industrial transformation and electricity market design, but they show weaknesses in areas like a just energy transition and the transformation of the heating sector.
If the CDU/CSU secures a majority in the election, party leader Friedrich Merz is likely to become the new Chancellor. However, his stance on renewable energy remains unclear. He has referred to wind power as a transitional technology and even suggested that wind turbines should be gradually phased out because of their unattractive appearance, which has sparked public debate.
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Electricity prices remain a critical concern for German voters as they head to the polls. (Photo: Ingo Joseph)
Industry concerns over policy shifts
The CDU/CSU also plans to lift the ban on fossil fuel boilers, which would allow boilers to use coal, oil, or natural gas for heating water or generating steam.
This move has raised concerns in the low-carbon heating industry, which has grown rapidly thanks to government incentives. Industry players worry that the hard-won supply chains may need to be adjusted once again to accommodate new policies.
Other sectors are also expected to be affected. For example, Thyssenkrupp, Germany’s steel giant, had already frozen several billion dollars in funding for its hydrogen-based steel manufacturing transformation project after the collapse of the Scholz government. With the CDU/CSU’s increasing likelihood of winning the election, the completion of the new plant, scheduled for 2027, may now face delays.
