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The cause of wildfires in Los Angeles may be linked to climate change. (Photo: Cal Fire)
Los Angeles is grappling with the most severe wildfires in its history, forcing tens of thousands of people to lose their homes. One of the primary causes, according to experts, is extreme weather driven by climate change.
Research from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) suggests that the phenomenon of "weather whiplash" — rapid transitions between extreme wet and dry conditions — may be making wildfires more frequent globally.
Extreme weather swings fueling disasters
Scientists point to California’s years-long drought followed by heavy rainfall in 2022 and 2023, which was quickly followed by extreme dryness in the fall and winter of 2024. This fluctuation has not only led to the growth of highly flammable vegetation but also made it easier for fires to ignite and spread uncontrollably.
Daniel Swain, the lead author of the study, describes the phenomenon as an "expanding atmospheric sponge," explaining that it causes flooding during the rainy season and depletes water from plants and soil during the dry season. "With every degree of warming the atmosphere is able to evaporate, absorb and release 7% more water," he explained.
The research team found that since the mid-20th century, "weather whiplash" has increased natural disasters by 31% to 66%, surpassing predictions made by climate models. The study forecasts that this will increasingly affect global regions, particularly northern Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, the northern Eurasian continent, the tropical Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic.
Wildfires drive soaring economic, ecological costs
A report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) highlighted that the severity of wildfires in the western United States has increased eightfold over the past two decades. These fires not only lead to long-term, irreversible ecological damage but also cause substantial economic losses and harm human health.
The economic losses include carbon credits. A wildfire in 2024, known as the "Park Fire," burned more than 180,000 hectares and disrupted California’s carbon offset program. Despite buffer mechanisms designed to compensate for losses, the need is more than given, requiring the use of other carbon offset inventories from different risk categories.
Although countries have quadrupled their wildfire suppression resources over the past 20 years, the actual results have been limited, highlighting the importance of prevention. The OECD recommends that protecting and restoring degraded forests and peatlands should be a key component of wildfire prevention efforts, restoring ecosystem health and resilience to better prevent and contain fires.
Since forests are one of the best natural carbon sinks, capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide can help mitigate the effects of global warming. The OECD also urges governments to curb illegal and unsustainable land use, strengthen enforcement, and improve public information on wildfire risks to aid in future risk assessments and policymaking.
Source: Context(1), (2), UCLA, Financial Times
