Study shows fossil fuel carbon emissions remain persistently high. (Photo: iStock)
Net-zero transition is becoming a growing trend worldwide, but global carbon emissions continue to rise rather than decrease.
The latest Global Carbon Budget report forecasts that both fossil fuel-related carbon emissions and total global carbon emissions will hit historic highs this year, with further increases expected. Experts warn that at the current rate of emission reductions, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is already out of reach.
Human carbon emissions continue to surge, no peak in sight
The report released on Nov. 13 predicts that global carbon emissions will reach a total of 41.6 billion tons in 2024, a 10-billion-ton increase compared to the previous year. The main contributor to this rise is emissions from fossil fuel use, which are expected to increase by 0.8% to 37.4 billion tons.
Carbon emissions from land-use changes are expected to rise this year as well, with a 4.2 billion ton increase, due to severe droughts and wildfires in the Amazon region. The total carbon emissions reported combine both fossil fuel usage and land-use changes.
The concept of a carbon budget refers to the total allowable emissions that humans can produce before the Earth's temperature exceeds the limit for a given degree of warming. The research team estimates that the likelihood of global temperatures rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the next six years is about 50%.
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, lead author of the report and professor at the University of Exeter, commented that there is no sign of fossil fuel emissions peaking. If substantial reductions do not occur immediately, the world is on a direct path to surpassing the 1.5°C threshold, making it irreversible.
Experts warn energy demand of tech slow down emission reduction
In response to the findings, Science Media Center Taiwan invited three experts to analyze the situation. Academician Chen Zhendong from the Academia Sinica stated that, if current trends continue, the 1.5°C global warming target will no longer be achievable. He also highlighted that, based on Taiwan's past average carbon emission reduction rate of 0.11% over the past 17 years, it could take over 200 years to meet Taiwan's 2030 reduction target.
Chen also pointed out that Taiwan lacks clear short-term carbon reduction goals and a proper monitoring mechanism. In response to industry complaints about carbon taxes potentially driving businesses abroad, he argued that such taxes have limited impact, and that Taiwan will eventually have to comply with carbon tax adjustments from the European Union when exporting products. He called for the establishment of Taiwan carbon border adjustment mechanism to ensure fair competition.
Huang Hongwei, a postdoctoral researcher at National Taipei University of Technology, noted that addressing energy challenges will take years, but energy demands for semiconductor expansion and other industries may surge in the next two years. This creates a short-term dilemma, where fossil fuels may remain necessary for adequate energy supply, posing a challenge to the government's emission reduction goals.
Furthermore, Huang stressed that real emission reductions can only be measured through actual carbon audits conducted annually, and that accurate data from greenhouse gas inventories is needed to reflect true progress in emission reductions.
Professor Li Jianming, an adjunct professor at National Taipei University, observed that the global race toward net-zero emissions have become a competition of both economic power and national strength. The development of zero-carbon energy, energy storage, and carbon capture technologies, as well as accelerating the decarbonization of power grids, are now the top priorities for climate policies across the world.
Source: Reuters、Global Carbon Project、SMCTW、ABC News
