Vietnam's revised Power Development Plan (PDP8) to be released with significant increase in solar capacity. (Photo: iStock)
Vietnam is expected to finalize the updated National Power Development Plan (PDP8) by the end of February. According to the draft, the country has significantly raised its electricity demand forecasts, energy imports, and renewable energy capacity. Solar power generation targets have been tripled, while the previously planned 6 GW offshore wind power capacity has been scrapped.
Vietnam increases electricity demand forecast
The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) has proposed five development scenarios, with the country's power demand projected to reach 211.8 GW by 2030, an increase of 35% from current levels. By 2050, demand is expected to further grow to 840 GW, a 50% rise. Minister Nguyen Hong Dien stated that energy growth must align with economic growth and support Vietnam's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050.
To meet double-digit economic growth, the MOIT recommends increasing solar photovoltaic capacity from the original 9 GW to 34 GW by 2030, with solar power projected to contribute 16% of the total electricity supply, up 11 percentage points from the current share.
Additionally, pumped-storage hydropower, combined with energy storage, will expand sixfold to 15.25 GW while hydropower capacity will increase by 5 GW, and onshore and nearshore wind power will be expanded by 7 GW. MOIT further estimates that once nuclear power plants begin operation in 2030, renewable energy will continue to grow.
Vietnam's government also plans to significantly increase electricity imports, with imports from China expected to reach 3,700 MW, five times the current level, while imports from Laos will rise to 6,800 MW, a 1.6-fold increase. Agreements have been signed with China and Laos for power imports, mainly via cross-border transmission networks, with hydropower as the primary source.
Vietnam will update its National Power Development Plan, with the latest draft proposing an expansion of hydropower imports from China and Laos. (Image: CK Power)
Country’s regulations have been subject to frequent changes
Vietnam intends to expand its share of renewable energy, but the plan to install 6 GW of offshore wind power by 2030 has been removed in the latest draft, mainly due to uncertainties in pre-planning and execution progress, leading to the cancellation of the project.
Despite the government’s approval of the PDP8 in 2023, progress has been slow. Nguyen Huy Hoach, an expert from the Vietnam Energy Association, pointed out that the revised plan, which proposes an additional 56.2 GW of capacity, will face significant challenges in meeting targets. Without breakthrough solutions, it may be at risk of being delayed or halted.
He emphasized that the current photovoltaic pricing mechanism is rigid, and investors face regulatory uncertainty, such as violations of certain rules during construction and slow administrative processes, which could result in losses of hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Moreover, the rapid expansion of solar installations without accompanying energy storage systems may lead to grid overloads, highlighting the lack of policy coherence, which has raised concerns among investors.
Source: VIR, Hanoi Times, Vnexpress
