COP30 leaders’ summit ended with grand commitments on sustainable fuels , carbon markets and forests. What comes next will determine whether these pledges turn into real progress. (Photo: Aline Massuca/COP30 Brasil Amazônia）
COP30 opened with bold pledges. At the leaders’ summit on Nov. 6 and 7, countries agreed to quadruple sustainable fuel use, expand Brazil’s carbon market coalition, and channel USD 5.5 billion toward rainforest protection. The real test, however, will be turning these promises into action.
Expand sustainable fuels at least 4 times by 2035
Endorsed by 19 countries including Japan and India, the “Belém Commitment for Sustainable Fuels,” or “Belém 4x,”aims to quadruple the use of sustainable fuels by 2035 compared with 2024 levels. Leaders said the initiative will provide high-level political backing for scaling up the global production and use of sustainable fuels.
While several existing international initiatives promote sustainable fuels, the Belém 4x seeks to serve as a unified political platform to accelerate collective action and industry growth worldwide, helping the aviation, shipping, road transport, and industrial sectors reduce carbon emissions.
The “Belém 4x” aims to quadruple the use of sustainable fuels by 2035. Buses and power generators at COP30 run on renewable fuel supplied by Petrobras, Brazil’s partly state-owned petrochemical and biofuels producer. (Photo: Petrobas)
However, Transport and Environment (T&E) warns that without strict safeguards against land expansion, the Belém 4x pledge could have calamitous consequences for the environment and climate. Biofuels production still depends heavily on crops such as oil palm, soy, sugarcane and corn, often linked to large-scale deforestation. T&E projects that, under current policies, about 90% of biofuels will still rely on food and feed crops by 2030, increasing pressure on land and food systems.
Europe’s experience serves as a cautionary tale. When the EU set ambitious biofuel targets under the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive, palm oil quickly became a major feedstock, with its use in biofuels peaking at over four million tonnes, according to OilWorld data. The unintended outcome was that palm oil–based biofuels generated more than 300 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent between 2010 and 2019, three times the emissions of the fossil fuels they replaced. Following years of advocacy from environmental groups, the EU corrected course in 2019 by declaring that palm oil would be phased out from eligible biofuels by 2030.
More than 10 countries joined Brazil-led carbon market coalition
The Declaration on the Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets has been endorsed by Brazil, China, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Chile, Germany, Mexico, Armenia, Zambia and France, and remains open to new signatories.
The proposal seeks to promote unilateral tax and trade mechanisms while introducing a multilateral umbrella to harmonize standards and systems across global carbon markets. Establishing uniform reporting methods, accounting protocols and transparency rules would strengthen credibility and comparability, creating a foundation for linking national and regional systems into a unified global framework for carbon pricing.
“Carbon markets can become important sources of public revenue, but they will only gain scale if countries move towards common parameters,” said Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said carbon markets can become important sources of public revenue, but they will only gain scale if countries move toward common parameters. (Photo: Rafa Neddermeyer/COP30 Brazil Amazon/PR)
Brazil believes that integrating carbon markets could become one of the most significant legacies of COP30, as it would facilitate emissions trading and ultimately help reduce global emissions. There are currently more than 40 carbon taxes and 35 emissions trading systems in place worldwide, together covering around 28% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
What makes this initiative particularly promising is its market-oriented approach, long favored by economists as an efficient way to cut emissions, said Vinod Thomas, former senior vice president of the World Bank. However, he added, for the initiative to yield meaningful results, major emitting nations must not only endorse the coalition but also pursue binding agreements, at least at the sub-regional level.
Over USD 5.5. billion announced for rainforest fund
More than USD 5.5 billion was pledged at the launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a new global initiative aimed at ending deforestation. At the COP30 leaders’ summit, Norway pledged USD 3 billion, while Brazil and Indonesia each committed USD 1 billion.
The TFFF introduces a novel nature financing mechanism under which forest nations would receive annual, perpetual payments for keeping their forests intact. The Facility will include a TFFF secretariat and a separate Tropical Forest Investment Fund (TFIF), which will invest sponsor contributions in emerging market bonds, excluding fossil fuels, coal, peat and any sectors linked to deforestation. The model is designed to be budget-neutral, rewarding participating countries with USD 4 per hectare of protected forest each year.
The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) introduces a new nature financing mechanism, including a TFFF secretariat and a separate Tropical Forest Investment Fund (TFIF) that invests sponsor contributions in emerging market bonds. (Chart: TFFF)
However, experts warn that the structure could favor investors over conservation outcomes. “It’s a very clear hierarchy: you serve the money raised on the market and capital investors first before you go to the intended purpose of the fund — compensating countries for leaving their tropical forests standing. To me, it seems that the focus is on the money, not necessarily on the outcome. That is really worrisome,” said Liane Schalatek, Associate Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Washington Office, in an interview with Carbon Brief.
Others emphasized the need for transparency and community inclusion. “Raising money isn’t enough. The next step is to design an operations manual with transparent oversight and measures to prioritize intact rainforests while genuinely involving Indigenous Peoples and local communities,” said Mirela Sandrinia, Interim Executive Director of World Resources Institute Brazil. “It must also address degradation—when forests are weakened by logging, mining or infrastructure—and leakage, where protecting one area simply shifts destruction elsewhere. Without that precision, the Facility risks being another good-intentioned promise, not a breakthrough.”
Source: T&E, Bloomberg, Carbon Brief, Carbon Canopy
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