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The EU is considering options that would allow it to revise or weaken its 2040 climate target, originally aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels. (Photo: iStock)
The European Union is considering options that could allow it to revise or weaken its 2040 climate target in the future. Member states aim to approve the plan at a meeting of climate ministers on Nov. 4, allowing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to present a finalized target at the United Nations COP30 climate summit on Nov. 6.
When asked whether EU governments would agree on a target ahead of COP30, one EU diplomat told Reuters that the bloc was “walking a knife’s edge.” Support from at least 15 of the 27 EU members is needed to pass the goal.
Shrinking carbon sinks puts pressure on EU climate goal
The European Commission has proposed cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 90%, from 1990 levels, by 2040, but the latest draft compromise introduces a new brake clause. The draft states that if carbon absorption from forests and other land-based activities falls short, the EU could propose “an adjustment of the 2040 intermediate target corresponding to and within the limits of the possible shortfalls.”
Europe’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide through its forests and land-use sector has dropped by nearly one-third over the past decade, driven by wildfires, pests, and unsustainable forest management. In 2025, European wildfires emitted more than 41 million tonnes of CO₂ by late September, compared with 18.33 million tonnes during the same period last year, according to the Joint Research Centre, the EU’s science hub.
Countries such as Italy and Poland have warned that the proposed 90% target is too restrictive, while others, including Spain and Sweden, are pushing for ambitious emissions cuts.
Foreign carbon credits at center of EU climate debate
Disagreement is growing over whether EU countries should use foreign carbon credits from developing nations to meet part of their targets. France wants credits to account for up to 5% of the 90% emissions cuts, Poland supports a higher share, while Germany favors a 3% cap. Denmark and others initially opposed the use of foreign carbon credits.
The original proposal allowed limited offsetting starting in 2036, but the latest draft shows countries have not yet agreed on the percentage. (Chart: European Commission)
The latest draft proposal shows that countries have not yet agreed on the percentage of emissions they can offset with international credits or on when they can start using them, according to Reuters. The original proposal allowed limited offsetting starting in 2036, capped at 3 percent of EU emissions in 1990 under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. That limit would translate to roughly one-third of the proposed 2040 target, about 460 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Experts question offsets as businesses urge ambition
However, analysts warn that leaning on international carbon credits risks delaying Europe’s domestic transition. According to Carbon Market Watch, relying on credits rather than investing in local decarbonization would make it harder to achieve the EU’s goal of climate neutrality by 2050. Whether the 3% allowance refers to the total cumulative amount of credits between 2036 and 2040 or a gradual increase over that period, both scenarios would result in higher EU emissions than a fully domestic 2040 target.
While policymakers debate the scale of the target, European industry is urging the bloc to stay the course. More than 135 businesses and investors, including Coca-Cola, IKEA, and Volvo, have signed an open letter calling on EU policymakers to uphold the proposal for a 90% reduction.
Corporate leaders say the 90% target keeps the continent aligned with the Paris Agreement while providing “clear policy direction, regulatory stability, and the enabling conditions for industrial reinvestment and innovation.”
Source: Reuters (1) (2) (3), Carbon Market Watch
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